Some thoughts on The NukeOp and Alito

A friend of mine and I have been having an ongoing discussion via email about the state of current politics. Here's an exchange I think is of particular interest:

First his questions:

I've begun to wonder how different outcomes would effect the midterm elections, and I'm curious what your thoughts are.

I think the likelihood of being voted out of committee on to the floor is virtually 100%.

I think the likelihood of there being 51 or more votes to confirm on the floor is about 99%.

I find it difficult to calculate the likehihood of a filibuster. I'm going up and down.

If there is a filibuster, it is less difficult to calculate the likehood of the nuclear option, I put it at 55%.

And that gives rise to my wondering who that would help more in the midterm elections.

The Republican base is still out there, and the red meat of the nuclear option would drive them into a Revelations like rapture.

But the Democrats could cite it as another staggering step toward fascism, and ask the voters to help them.

The Republicans would counter with "they won't even give our nominees simple up and down votes," obviously we need more Republicans in the chairs to stop their unfair tactics.

Republicans, sadly, are currently MUCH better at spinning their messages.

So the question is, if the nuclear option happens, who will it help more? I have to think top strategical brains on each side are deeply analyzing that question.

What are the great Thorrad's, the Wonderful Optimist of the Left, thoughts?

Then my response:

Well...

Now that's an interesting question. I am personally of the belief that we almost have to trigger the Nuclear option. There is almost no downside to it. The repubs in the world (Not in congress) are going to howl no matter what. There is no reason to appease them in any way. There are a good number of folks in the Dem base too. They are up for a good fight right now. They have endured a massive amount of disappointment so far and I think thy are spoiling for a battle. If we filibuster we might trigger the NukeOp. I am not too sure that we will however.

The Repubs have got to see that there is at least a chance that they will be unseated in the next few years if not in this election cycle. So long as there is a chance that they would become the minority again I think they will be very reticent to do away with the only real and effective weapon of the minority. Do you think that there would be any chance of them gettting even the slightest bit of sympathy from the Dems if they took the filibudster off the table and then were voted into minority status? I for one do not. I think they would be reminded by every senator that they were the ones who approved it and that they could just go suck it. (Hell, that's what I would do.)

As for whether or not the NukeOp will make or break the repubs it remailns to be seen. I think it would hurt rather than help. And hurt a lot. The average joe sixpack out there is neither a Republican nor a Democrat. He wants to be left alone by the government and thinks that the Federal Gov. is really just too far seperated from his life to bother with. The Feds have little impact on the average american. Even the most invasive laws only effect a very small number of us really. But that being said, there is a tremendous feeling in the general population that the rules of the Federal Gov. should be fair and should favor the weakest of us. Unfortunately right now that's the Dems. There is a massive amount to which the average joe identifies with the underdog in this country. They are likely to see an attack on the filibuster as an unfair attack on the weaker man. This is a powerful rehtorical device, and can bring a lot more sympathy with it than you might imagine.

I do think that, left to his own, Alito will be confirmed. I also think that the chances are higher than you think that there will be a showdown on the filibuster. I also think that we will win that showdown. Whether we win by getting to filibuster and defeat Alito or by triggering the NukeOp and getting to watch the Repubs destroy a longstanding minority institution we will win. The only way we would truly fail would be to not mount a challenge to this nomination.

We are already challenging it.

That's just what I think.

T